The clearest guide on the internet to prediction markets — Kalshi, Polymarket, and how to read the odds. Free education; the live board is the product.
Robinhood didn't build a prediction market. It built an on-ramp to one, and that distinction explains almost everything about how these contracts behave.
A prediction-market price is a probability wearing a dollar sign. Here is how to read it without fooling yourself.
The legal status of prediction markets in the US comes down to one agency, one law, and a fight over whether an election is a commodity.
Polls ask people what they think. Markets ask people to put money behind it, and that changes almost everything.
A prediction market price is only as trustworthy as the money standing behind it, and liquidity is how you measure that.
The forty-year path from a University of Iowa experiment to billion-dollar event exchanges, told plainly.
Contracts that pay out on real-world events went from academic curiosity to mainstream news feed in a few short years. Here is how they work.
An election market price is a probability, not a prediction. Here is how to read it, and where new readers go wrong.
Two venues, one question, two prices — a plain-English guide to why prediction markets disagree and what the gap is really telling you.
When a market's odds move, someone changed their mind with money on the line. Here is how to read what that move is actually saying.
A contract that pays a dollar if something happens will trade at whatever the crowd thinks the odds are, and that price is the whole game.
One is a regulated US exchange, the other a crypto-native global venue. The difference shapes who can trade, what settles, and how prices behave.
A prediction market looks like a poll, trades like a bet, and behaves like a signal. Only one of those is what it actually is.
A 500 million dollar hedging book and a licensed exchange show prediction markets turning into financial plumbing, not a sideshow.
They both look like odds on a screen, but one is a marketplace and the other is a house. That changes everything.
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